On Thursday, investors will closely monitor the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the most important data points the Federal Reserve will consider in its next interest rate decision.
Bloomberg estimates that the report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, will show headline inflation of 3.6%, a minor deceleration from August’s 3.7% annual gain in prices.
September consumer prices are projected to have increased 0.3% over the previous month, a weaker rate than August’s 0.6% monthly increase.
After energy prices drove the majority of August’s price increases, oil will continue to be a major concern. Bank of America anticipates a 0.4% month-over-month increase in energy prices in September, after a 5.6% increase in August. However, retail petroleum prices will likely experience “modest changes” this month, according to the bank.
BofA also anticipates sustained upward pressure on food prices, which rose 4.3% annually and 0.2% month-over-month in August.
According to Bloomberg data, on a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in September are anticipated to have increased 4.1% over the previous year, a decrease from the 4.3% annual increase observed in August.
Monthly core prices are anticipated to have risen 0.3%, the same as August. After falling 1.2% month-over-month in August and 1.4% month-over-month in July, it is anticipated that used car prices fell further last month.
“This could be the last significant decline in used car prices in the near future,” Bank of America analyst Michael Gapen cautioned prior to the report’s release. “Outside of used cars, goods prices should be little changed as we forecast core goods excluding used cars to be unchanged on the month.”
